世界未来的新秩序将由中美共同掌控
The new world order in the future will be jointly controlled by China and the United States
作者：段跃初
Author: Duan yuechu
今天，笔者在网上看到发自《防务新观察》的一篇访谈文章，文章认为：世界秩序从来是由大国决定的，二战中是由美国、英国、俄国三大国决定了战后的世界秩序。今天，应该由中美两国来决定未来的世界秩序，中美GDP和科技力量的总和超过全球的40%，军力总和超过全球的50%，美国吃不掉中国，中国吃不掉美国，美国即便拉帮结派。也击不垮中国，因些美国必须与中国通过谈判与博弈达成未来世界秩序的共识，如果美国不能做到这一点，美国将面临一战前欧洲的形势，即常年存在冲突，虽然在部分问题会被立即解决，但难免会在某个时刻失去控制，拜登政府上台后无意与中国开战，却没有放松对华军事挑衅，我们可以相信，中美高层可以达成相遇的管控规则，但美国长年挑衅中国，难免会擦枪走火。
Today, the author saw an interview article from "New Defense Observation" on the Internet. The article thought:The world order has always been determined by big powers. In World War II, the world order after the war was determined by the United States, Britain and Russia. Today, it is up to China and the United States to decide the future world order. The combined GDP and scientific and technological strength of China and the United States account for more than 40% of the world's total, and the combined military strength accounts for more than 50% of the world's total. The United States can't eat China, China can't eat the United States, and the United States can't even form cliques. If the United States can not achieve this, it will face the situation in Europe before World War I, that is, there will be conflicts all the year round. Although some problems will be solved immediately, they will inevitably lose control at some point. Biden administration has no intention to fight with China, but it has not let go We can believe that the high-level officials of China and the United States can reach a control rule of meeting each other when they are provoking China militarily. However, if the United States has been provoking China for many years, it is inevitable that it will go wrong.
一战就是擦枪走火酿成的，目前全世界面临的情况，比过去危险得多，因为美中双方都有高科技武器，美中双方的高科技武器可能会导致非常激烈的冲突。
The first World War was caused by a brush fire. At present, the situation faced by the whole world is much more dangerous than in the past, because both the United States and China have high-tech weapons, which may lead to very fierce conflicts.
文章认为：新的国际秩序只能由中美两国达成共识来建立，世界回不到过去了，拜登想通过拉帮结伙，制定共同的规则来限制中国，美国是否有可能与盟友一起培养外交政策思维。并获得其它国家的理解，寻找世界秩序，美国盟友各自有各自的利益和算盘，想通过与他们协商达成共识，建立新的世界秩序，无异于痴人说梦这是不可能的事，一来人多嘴杂，很难达成共识，二来这样达成的共识，未必符合美国的利益，三来没有中国的参与，达成共识也白搭。
The article thinks:The new international order can only be established by consensus between China and the United States. The world can't go back to the past. Biden wants to restrict China by ganging up and making common rules. Is it possible for the United States to cultivate foreign policy thinking with its allies. It is impossible for US allies to reach a consensus and establish a new world order through consultation with other countries. On the one hand, it is difficult to reach a consensus because there are too many people to talk about. On the other hand, it may not be in the interests of the United States. On the other hand, it is impossible to reach a consensus without China's participation It's no use reaching a consensus.
未来世界的形成不能一蹴而就，进入新世纪，中国加速复兴综合实力与美国接近，以GDP总量来说，2000年中国仅为美国的十六分之一，但2020年中国GDP已经超过了美国的70%。鉴于美国已经无力维持二战以来建立的自由主义国际秩序，特朗普四年不断退群，摆脱大国责任，想让美国轻装前行，特朗普执政破坏了美国二战建立起来的世界秩序，松动了美国的同盟体系，拜登上台之后，喊出“美国回来了”的口号，妄图回到特朗普之前的世界，但世界回不到过去了，美国必须记住国际问题没有最终解决方案。每一个解决方案都打开了另一系列问题的大门。
In the new century, China's comprehensive strength is close to that of the United States. In 2000, China's GDP is only one sixteenth of that of the United States, but in 2020, China's GDP has exceeded 70% of that of the United States. In view of the fact that the United States has been unable to maintain the liberal international order established since World War II, trump has been withdrawing from the group for four years, getting rid of the responsibility of big powers, and trying to make the United States move forward with light weight. Trump's administration destroyed the world order established by the United States in World War II and loosened the United States alliance system. After Biden came to power, he called out the slogan "America is back" in an attempt to return to the world before trump But the world can't go back. The United States must remember that there is no final solution to international problems. Each solution opens the door to another set of problems.
文章认为：中美达成共识，不是一件容易的事，但必须努力做才有成功，美国可能会发现，与中国这样一个国家很快在某些方面更领先的对手谈判是很难的，拜登政府必须正视中华文明，是一个与西方文明同样是一个伟大的文明，中国是一个与美国同样伟大的国家，在未来世界秩序上达成共识才有可能，美国必须理解,中国与美国有不同看法是正常的，双方只有求同存异、各让一步，才有可能达成共识，
The article thinks:It is not easy for China and the United States to reach a consensus, but we must work hard to succeed. The United States may find it difficult to negotiate with China, a country that is soon ahead in some aspects. The Biden administration must face up to Chinese civilization, which is as great a civilization as Western civilization, and China is as great a country as the United States in the future It is only possible to reach a consensus on the world order. The United States must understand that it is normal for China and the United States to have different views. Only by seeking common ground while reserving differences and making concessions can they reach a consensus,
文章认为：未来的世界秩序，只能由中美两国来决定，中美文化、制度、价值观的不同达成共识不容易，但双方必须努力，关键的问题，美国要接受中国是一个伟大的国家，能够平等地通过谈判和博弈，对未来国际秩序形成共识，但目前来看，拜登政府还难以接受中国与美国共同掌控，中国有句俗语：不打不成交，美国还不服气，还想与中国再打一打，中国只有在反击中让美国感到了痛，才有可能迫使美国转变态度，回归理性。
The article thinks:The future world order can only be decided by China and the United States. It is not easy for China and the United States to reach a consensus on different cultures, systems and values. However, both sides must work hard. The key problem is that the United States should accept that China is a great country and can reach a consensus on the future international order through equal negotiations and games. However, at present, it is difficult for the Biden administration to accept China and the United States There is a saying in China: no fight, no deal. The United States is not convinced and wants to fight with China again. Only when China makes the United States feel pain in the counterattack can it force the United States to change its attitude and return to rationality.
中美的未来是乐观的，未来十年是中美战略的摩擦期，在此期间美国对维持全球霸权还不死心，但十年之后，中国GDP超过美国，美国就打压不动中国了，就不再会幻想，通过遏制中国维持其全球霸权了，这时美国政府会思考是否应该与中国协商，未来世界的样式了。
The future of China and the United States is optimistic. The next decade will be a period of strategic friction between China and the United States. During this period, the United States will not give up on maintaining global hegemony. However, ten years later, when China's GDP exceeds that of the United States, the United States will not be able to suppress China and will no longer fantasize about maintaining its global hegemony by containing China. At this time, the U.S. government will consider whether it should negotiate with China on the future world style .
作者是北京中国未来研究会会员
The writer is a member of The China Society for the Future in Beijing
作者姓名：段跃初 Duan Yuechu
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