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科学家认为气候变化只要各国努力还在可控范围之内

Scientists believe that climate change is still controllable as long as countries make efforts

文/段跃初

Author: Duan yuechu

全球气候变暖会导致海平面上升，使降水重新分布，从而改变当前的世界气候格局；其次，全球气候变暖影响和破坏了生物链、食物链，带来更为严重的自然恶果。气候变暖使大陆地区，尤其是中高纬度地区降水增加，非洲等一些地区降水减少。有些地区极端天气气候事件（厄尔尼诺、干旱、洪涝、雷暴、冰雹、风暴、高温天气和沙尘暴等）出现的频率与强度增加全球气温变化直接影响全球的水循环，使某些地区出现旱灾或洪灾，导致农作物减产。

Global warming will lead to the rise of sea level and the redistribution of precipitation, thus changing the current world climate pattern; Secondly, global warming has affected and destroyed the biological chain and food chain, bringing more serious natural consequences. Climate warming has increased precipitation in the continent, especially in the middle and high latitudes, and decreased precipitation in some areas such as Africa. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events (El Ni ñ o, drought, flood, thunderstorm, hail, storm, high temperature weather and dust storm, etc.) in some areas have increased, and the global temperature change has a direct impact on the global water cycle, resulting in drought or flood in some areas, resulting in crop yield reduction.

气候变化的致命后果在今年变得更加明显，创纪录的热浪、洪水和野火夺走了风千人的生命，也使我们的救灾人员的能力受到了限制。联合国气候小组早期的高端排放情景（称为RCP 8.5）发现，到2100年，全球气温可能上升5°C以上。

The deadly consequences of climate change have become more obvious this year. Record heat waves, floods and wildfires have claimed thousands of lives and limited the capacity of our disaster relief personnel. The early high-end emission scenario of the United Nations Climate Panel (called RCP 8.5) found that the global temperature may rise by more than 5 ° C by 2100.

鉴于日益严格的气候政策以及太阳能和风能成本的直线下降，我们即将见证可再生能源发展的绝对繁荣。过去以低估可再生能源增长而闻名的国际能源机构现在表示，到2026年，全球产能将增长60%以上。届时，太阳能、风能、水力发电大坝和其他可再生能源设施将与化石燃料和核电站的全球产能相匹敌。

In view of increasingly stringent climate policies and the sharp decline in the cost of solar and wind energy, we are about to witness the absolute prosperity of renewable energy development. The International Energy Agency, which used to be famous for underestimating the growth of renewable energy, now says that global production capacity will increase by more than 60% by 2026. By then, solar, wind, hydroelectric dams and other renewable energy facilities will rival the global capacity of fossil fuels and nuclear power plants.

多年来一直以低于个位数增长的新型电动汽车销量也在迅速增长。据BloombergNEF称，随着汽车制造商推出更多车型以及政府制定越来越激进的政策，今年汽车销量将达到560万辆左右，比2020年的数字增长80%以上。电动汽车从2019上半年的2.8%的销量增长到了2021上半年的7%，在中国和欧洲的涨幅尤其大。该研究公司预计，到2030年，零排放汽车将占所有新购车量的近30%。与此同时，有很多技术进步的迹象。研究人员和公司正在寻找生产无碳钢和水泥的方法。以植物为基础的肉类替代品比任何人预期的更快变得更美味、更受欢迎。企业正在建造越来越大的工厂来吸收空气中的二氧化碳。根据PitchBook的数据，对气候和清洁技术初创公司的风险资本投资达到了前所未有的水平，截至第三季度，投资总额超过300亿美元。这里有一个重要且违反直觉的发现：虽然危险的极端天气事件变得越来越普遍或严重，但世界似乎在让人们远离这些事件方面变得更加安全。近几十年来，自然灾害造成的平均死亡人数普遍急剧下降。“我们有更好的技术来预测风暴、野火和洪水；有更好的基础设施来保护我们自己；有更好的网络在灾难发生时进行合作和恢复，”

Sales of new electric vehicles, which have been growing below single digits for many years, are also growing rapidly. According to Bloomberg Nef, as carmakers launch more models and the government formulates more and more radical policies, car sales will reach about 5.6 million this year, an increase of more than 80% over the figure in 2020. The sales volume of electric vehicles increased from 2.8% in the first half of 2019 to 7% in the first half of 2021, especially in China and Europe. The research company predicts that zero emission vehicles will account for nearly 30% of all new car purchases by 2030. At the same time, there are many signs of technological progress. Researchers and companies are looking for ways to produce non carbon steel and cement. Plant based meat substitutes become more delicious and popular faster than anyone expected. Enterprises are building larger and larger factories to absorb carbon dioxide from the air. According to pitchbook, venture capital investment in climate and clean technology startups reached an unprecedented level, with a total investment of more than $30 billion as of the third quarter. Here is an important and counterintuitive finding: although dangerous extreme weather events are becoming more and more common or serious, the world seems to be safer in keeping people away from these events. In recent decades, the average death toll caused by natural disasters has generally decreased sharply. "We have better technology to predict storms, wildfires and floods; better infrastructure to protect ourselves; and better networks to cooperate and recover in the event of a disaster."

美联社消息称：数据世界研究负责人汉娜·里奇（Hannah Ritchie）在英国《连线》杂志中最近一篇的文章中引用了她自己的研究指出。通过对社会环境、海洋环境、陆地环境、生产制造环境等气候适应措施的正确投资，我们有能力应对我们将面临的一些的风险。然而，排放温室气体最多的富国必须提供财政援助，帮助穷国加强防御。向天然气、太阳能和风能以及越来越多的电动汽车的转变都得到了每个国家的政府的支持，包括贷款、补贴和其他将基础技术推向市场的政策。而业务驱动的扩展过程迅速降低了这些技术的成本，帮助它们变得更具吸引力。越来越具有竞争力和商业友好性的清洁替代品有望简化进一步气候行动的政治。如果越来越多的国家制定越来越激进的碳税政策、清洁能源标准或为研究和示范项目提供更多资金，我们将更快地降低排放。

According to the associated press, Hannah Ritchie, head of data world research, cited her own research in a recent article in Wired magazine. Through the correct investment in climate adaptation measures such as social environment, marine environment, land environment and production and manufacturing environment, we have the ability to deal with some of the risks we will face. However, the rich countries that emit the most greenhouse gases must provide financial assistance to help poor countries strengthen their defenses. The shift to natural gas, solar and wind energy and more and more electric vehicles is supported by the government of each country, including loans, subsidies and other policies to bring basic technologies to the market. The business driven expansion process quickly reduces the cost of these technologies and helps them become more attractive. Increasingly competitive and business friendly clean alternatives are expected to simplify the politics of further climate action. If more and more countries formulate more and more radical carbon tax policies, clean energy standards or provide more funds for research and demonstration projects, we will reduce emissions faster.

在苏格兰格拉斯哥联合国气候变化大会（COP26）为全球社会提供了拯救自己的绝佳机会。每个国家都将提交其国家定义贡献（NDC）或减少导致全球变暖的温室气体排放量的计划。如果这些计划达到必要的目标，人类可以将全球气温上升限制在1.5摄氏度，避免最坏的气候状况。在地球日领导人峰会期间，拜登政府宣布了一项雄心勃勃的改革计划，到2030年将温室气体排放量比2005年减少50%。拜登的重建更好议程（包括人类基础设施和气候计划）的通过对实现这一目标至关重要。拜登还阐述了以气候危机为中心的“中产阶级”新外交政策。拜登政府认为气候危机是主要的国家安全威胁，外交政策是国内政策的延伸。全球合作和人类团结对于减少温室气体排放、援助全球南方脆弱和资源匮乏的国家以及应对日益严重的气候难民危机至关重要。预计到2050年，这场危机将惠及2亿人。

In Glasgow, Scotland, the United Nations Climate Change Conference (cop26) provides a great opportunity for the global community to save itself. Each country will submit its national defined contribution (NDC) or plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions leading to global warming. If these plans achieve the necessary goals, mankind can limit the rise of global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoid the worst climate conditions. During the Earth Day leaders' summit, the Biden administration announced an ambitious reform plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030 compared with 2005. The adoption of Biden's agenda for better reconstruction, including human infrastructure and climate plans, is crucial to achieving this goal. Biden also elaborated on the new "middle class" foreign policy centered on the climate crisis. The Biden administration believes that the climate crisis is a major national security threat, and foreign policy is an extension of domestic policy. Global cooperation and human solidarity are essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, assisting fragile and resource poor countries in the global South and responding to the growing climate refugee crisis. It is expected that by 2050, the crisis will benefit 200 million people.

毫无疑问，如果人类要拯救自己和自然，世界上两个最大的经济体和温室气体排放国——美国和中国——之间的合作至关重要，在气候问题上的合作和在其他地方的对抗，很难想象这两者是如何可能同时存在的，特别是在生存性气候危机日益加剧的情况下。这突出了在这个关键时刻可能爆发的新“冷战”所固有的危险。

There is no doubt that if mankind wants to save itself and nature, the cooperation between the world's two largest economies and greenhouse gas emitters - the United States and China - is very important. It is difficult to imagine how the two can exist at the same time, especially in the context of the increasing survival climate crisis. This highlights the inherent danger of a new "cold war" that may break out at this critical moment.

所以，我们需要更积极的压力和更积极的气候政策来应对气候变化的威胁。但归根结底，我们必须发明并构建解决问题的方法。

Therefore, we need more active pressure and more active climate policies to deal with the threat of climate change. But in the final analysis, we must invent and build solutions to problems.

作者是北京中国未来研究会会员。

The author is a member of Beijing China Future Research Association.

作者姓名：段跃初 Duan Yuechu